台灣金融研訓院 EN

July Highlights

• The Operations Index remained above 50 this month, but the trend is weaker than expected

  The BEI Operations Index remained above 50 this month, but the trend was unexpectedly weak. Bankers expect overseas business to recover in the next 3 months. The domestic focus remains on credit quantity and price performance. The FSC’s and Central Bank’s SME rescue package is expected to continue. The Central Bank will maintain the policy rate for the year, the deposit rate will remain around 1.2% for 3Q, and overall interest income is expected to gradually recover with stable prices and increasing volumes. Asset trusts and funds will become the main source of fees and commission income in the case that insurance policy fee income is greatly reduced.

• Strong domestic stock market performance, BEI Market Index is optimistic

  For the Market Index, the Central Bank has not cut interest rates again since March. Bankers also believe that domestic rate cuts have slowed, and their views stabilized. Sub-index scores rose sharply since last month. For the stock market, Taiwan has effectively controlled the pandemic, and its politics and economics are stable, attracting capital inflow. ICT, which accounts for over 40% of Taiwan’s exports, performed well in 1H, and with continued capital repatriation effects, bankers maintained medium- and long-term confidence in equities, driving a strong upward trend in exchange rate scores. The stock market also drove the housing market sub-index further above 50.

• International and domestic financial and business focus points for the next three months

  1. The continuing COVID-19 pandemic; 2. Crude oil price volatility; 3. The financial impact of monetary easing; 4. Bailout policies around the world; 5. The impact of the FSC’s measures to strengthen insurance policy management on banks’ wealth management; 6. Developments in the US-China trade and technology war; 7. The impact of Hong Kong’s security law on global economics and trade; and 8. The three domestic online-only banks and their impact on traditional banks.